This is an interesting column on Brexit, Trump, and the similarity in voter cohort for each. But the columnist – and the pollsters – are missing the point. So focused are they on the trees, they fail to see the forest.
The campaign to remain won over two-thirds of non-whites, about three-fifths of college graduates, and big majorities among younger and urban voters…. All of this replicates American patterns. Democrats now rely on an urbanized coalition of Millennials, minorities, and socially liberal college-educated and single whites (especially women). Republicans thrive among older, non-college educated and religiously devout whites, especially outside of major cities.
“Demographic change” is the culprit for Brexit and Trump. But it is not the demographic change pundits and politicians on the Left are pursuing in their never-ending quest to label those of us who appreciate the rule of law (which has nothing to do with race) as “racist” or “sexist,” or any other antiquated “-ist” leftover from the Baby Boomer culture wars of the 1960s.
Both in Brexit and in Trump voters, the columnist and pollsters note that the cohort voting “Leave” and Trump, are the same: Older, whiter, less-urbanized, less-educated.
True. But that is not the fault line. That is only an artifact of the fault line.
Placing the fault line on race or education or location is blaming artifacts for the result. These artifacts are as noted: younger, more urban, single women, etc. But these only are a reflection of a shared worldview by these groups, and that worldview is far larger – and of far greater import – than these categories.
Nothing expresses one’s worldview more strongly than the desire to have children, to populate our future, to keep progress progressing, and to pass on cultural mores.
Below is a graph of the State-level Red v Blue results from the 2012 election, sorted by the TFR (Total Fertility Rate) of each state.
As you can see, fertility is weighted heavily toward Red states – those states with the cohort voting, in America for Trump, and in Britain for Brexit.
In TFR ranking, the top nine States are Red; the bottom 12 States are Blue. In the lowest 25 States in TFR, 5 are Red. In the highest 25 States in TFR, 6 are Blue.
Those who believe in the future enough to populate it, whose worldview includes propagating our cultural values of liberty and independence through the ages, are voting for liberty through Brexit and Trump.
These are people who want to ensure that our cultural values, gleaned from millennia of struggle against tyrants in many shapes and forms, persist into a future holding their offspring. They are voting for accountable, representative government rather than government by special interest, by remote ruling class, by unaccountable legislative bodies: the EU Parliament – or what has become a one-party Congress. They are voting against spending today the earnings of those who will populate that future tomorrow. They are voting for the Rule of Law. In America this cohort is voting Trump. In Britain it voted Brexit.
Those who refuse populating that future are voting for less liberty, for ever-more regulation, for a more-encroaching state, and for taking money to spend today from a future they refuse to populate, leaving their bill to the children of those who share none of their values.
This cohort of voters vote Democrat in America, and in Britain for “Remain.” These voters are voting for the Rule of Man, as evidenced by the support for far-reaching Executive Orders by Obama, by the never-ending campaign to remove the 2nd Amendment – without even bothering with the Constitutional solution of amending that document, with the constant overturning and rewriting of laws by executive fiat regardless of the will of the citizens whom that executive and government ostensibly represent.
These voters does not believe that the values of America, of Western Civilization, are worth propagating, are worth what they see as a sacrifice – and the Trump and Brexit voters see as a blessing – of having children to retain and ensure those values across the ages.
Yes, demographics explain the Red/Blue divide in America, and the Leave/Remain vote in Britain. But the issue is far more broad than race or gender or creed or color.
Liberals are correct: race and gender do not matter and must be ignored. Viewing voting statistics by singling out people by race and gender results in a false conclusion as to why the vote is split.
The split is demographic – but it is along fertility lines. The split is in the worldview of each cohort regarding the future.
- Blue States want to live off the earnings and labor of others as taken and redistributed by an ever-larger government, rather than their own effort; Red States want the opposite.
- Blue States want to take money from the future; Red States do not.
- Blue States do not want people to be able to defend themselves from criminals. Red States want to defend themselves – and their families.
- Blue States want an encroaching government as Nanny and Parent. Red States want what the Founders wanted – a small government, and to be left alone in liberty under law.
We no longer have the same worldview. We no longer have the same goals. Only inertia is holding us together. And that is not enough.
We can continue to wage cultural war, to succumb to the tyranny and lack of law of the Left. To spend the labor of future Red State citizens on Blue priorities that will always fail, as they have throughout history and are – right now – in Brazil and Venezuela, and argue. We can continue overturning the will of the Founders and the America we all grew up in…
Or we can leave. Which is the only sensible alternative.
We are not going to succumb to the totalitarian Left. They are not going to suddenly desire liberty.
It is time for Red States and Blue States, as with Britain and Europe, to go our separate ways.