What’s happening is a changing of the guard.
Just as when Britain overtook Spain as the biggest empire, and when the USA overtook Britain post-war. The difference is that these previous empires were built in greed and religion (Spain, Catholicism) or were essentially an updated version of their predecessor (America replacing Britain mercantilism – which replaced Dutch mercantilism.) And, of course, that technology has changed the world in fundamental ways – and a global empire now really can be just that. But it will remain mercantilist.
At minimum it will impact global reserve currencies with unknown, but probably negative, impacts on the dollar, euro and Western economies (already hammered by the Left in the CRA-induced 2008 collapse).
Russia moving into the lead is a bigger difference than US-Britain, and it will remain to be seen how large is the difference between a world order with Russia supreme v. the declining Brit/American (Anglosphere) world order. And, of course, how China will play.
American Baby Boomers have elected, unknowingly, to have Russia take the lead. Europeans have elected no longer to play – at all; the EU fertility rate is 1.6 (Ukraine’s is 1.3, so, seriously, who cares and why?) – they’ll be outta business in 40-60 years, except for the table scraps for which the muslim barbarian invaders already are fighting one another… assuming Putin doesn’t do the right thing and just nuke them – which he ought to do pretty soon in Chechnya. (With China already executing islamists in Xingjian province (20M muslims live there), and Putin arguably ready to move on Chechnya as soon as he pushes the infantile conceit of the American Left deeper into the mud, I’d expect serious action against islam within the decade. Real serious action. The sooner the better.
Putin’s alliance with Asaad is one of convenience: Putin needs the warm water port, and he wants to inject himself – and remove America from – the entire Middle East/South Asia discussion. By doing so he builds credibility with the entire world he cares about, gains dominant access to the oil required by Europe and Japan (two regions with suicidal fertility, so who really cares? they don’t; and helping his moribund economy), and sets the stage for whatever he plans to do with Egypt (largest Arab country) and Israel (not a lot of good blood between them, but Israel is pragmatic above all else; if Russia will stomp their enemies for economic reasons, and America won’t, look for Israel to belly-up to the Bear’s bar).
If you’re worried about Putin killing lotsa folks in Syria and Mesopotamia, and don’t like that, well, America armed ISIS with Ghaddafi’s weapons and stood by as THEY killed and displaced millions, so what, really, is the difference other than self-imposed ignorance?
Will a Russian-led (dominated?) world order bode ill or well for the mercantilist world Britain and American – and before them, Holland – created? Don’t know.
American voters have been voting for increasing levels of leftism and crony capitalism (“crapitalism”) since 1968; Boomers just hate freedom and liberty: The Left wants to tell you how to speak, think, drive, live… and the Right wants to tell you whom you can marry, love, befriend, and what to do with your own body.
So much for liberty under law.
Boomers will find that their infantile conceit that WESTERN Human Rights are “Universal” is laughable on the world stage, and that, once you give up being a functioning and senior member of the world order, no one any longer cares what you think. Baby Boomers have done exactly that, but are too dumb to realize it.
Our parents and grandparents saved the world, saved Berlin (airlift), and protected liberty for half-a-century. Baby Boomers ignorantly thought stasis was the way of the world, and that everyone wants what we want. It isn’t, they don’t, and we all are about to find this out. And they think everything they need to know they learned in kindergarten – but forgot that bullies exist there, before they are civilized by the shared mores and behavior standards of the adults, mores and behavior standards the Boomer Left rejects.
(GHW Bush didn’t help this at all when he decided the borders of a tiny medieval sheikdom needed protecting, setting off this entire mess. If a local warlord wants some more land in a tough neighborhood, but is willing to keep the peace with violent extremists that he – and not we – understand, why go in there and change all that? The Kuwait Punitive Expedition will be seen by future historians as an existentially foolish, ego-driven adventure with nothing but bad – very bad – consequences. If the West writes that history; history is written by the victors.)
But – are there reasons to be optimistic about our future?
If Russia takes on the goal of world peace, and annihilates a cohort that badly needs annihilating then we don’t need to have an over-extended military – or borrow trillions to pay for it.
(China can help, of course – which is why I wrote China Rising, in which both nations move forward and islam is – utterly – annihilated in an entirely plausible strategy – of which a Commissioner on the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission wrote: “Riveting, brilliant, terrifying, hopeful, insightful beyond imagining. Turns your worldview upside down alongside a narrative you can’t put down. Truly one of the most extraordinary books I’ve ever read, as an avid fan of fiction and one who has studied China’s modern rise in great detail…”, and of which a 25-yr Mao analyst at NSA noted “It ought to be a White Paper…” A world divided into spheres of influence: Russia, China taking the Old World, America the New – would be far superior to the near-constant violence of too-early-de-colonialized tribes).
Our unique continental geography protects us to some extent (though Obama importing hundreds of thousands of barbarians who will refuse assimilation, to the joy of the Left, is problematic, I imagine the next president will put a stop to that and, if they get violent, a whole lot of them will be killed by Americans with guns). (Interesting that the party that – wrongly – sees itself as the Party of Peace is about to unleash the greatest amount of violence on American soil in history, isn’t it? That, too, shall pass. But it’s why we must be, and remain, armed and ammo’d-up.)
If into this new order – that Russia can pay for and in which they may act the adult that we have refused – steps a President Rand Paul, who – correctly – sees no reason to be deployed in 100+ countries, and wants to return to Constitutional government and liberty here in America, our future will be prosperous.
We OWN the future – if we can resist the ridiculous urge to combat an adult who will address the problems we have helped to create and allowed to fester, which, unfortunately, is an urge no other GOP candidate seems willing to resist – a bunch who STILL don’t grasp that the post-war stasis is over and it’s time to deal with a new world.
We still have the best minds, the best rule of law, the best higher education, the best fertility in the civilized world.
And if Russia wants to pay to protect that future, fine with me. They need a successful mercantilist system to fix their economy, so they are unlikely to change much, other than who is listened to first (Russia, not America), and to use an inarguably legitimate amount of force to end the islamist terror cult, thereby ending its burden on the world economy, something that needs to be done but that the West is too childish to grasp.
You can’t have freedom and liberty without order. Boomers don’t grasp this. It’s the reason we have laws – that they hate and disobey whenever they like. The issue is balance.
The Constitution once provided that balance. Presidents of both parties have overthrown the Constitution and law as they have wanted and been allowed to get away with: Lincoln, T. Roosevelt, Wilson, FDR, Obama.
Rand (and Cruz, though Cruz inexplicably can’t get past the Cold War) wants to return to that balance. The Left does not, nor do Bush/Rubio/Christie/Carly, nor any other progressive Republican politicians.
My guess is the Left is about to learn that without the balance they reject (Constitution), order will look far more tyrannical than they think. But then the adults will get rid of them, free-up the American workers, and stop meddling globally – and we can return to law, and the liberty it protects.