America is Undermining Nonproliferation

Think for a moment about the logic behind nuclear nonproliferation.

America tells its allies and the nations it informally defends that they do not need nuclear weapons because of the American nuclear umbrella, that our nukes will deter any enemy with bad intentions, and that no threat exists to independent nations requiring the development of their own nuclear arsenal due to America’s deterrence regime.

This trust in America has worked since the late 1940s.

But where does the world find itself today?

Ukraine voluntarily gave up nuclear weapons it possessed on the promise by America to defend it from enemies. Poland and the Czechs see now that Ukraine’s surrender of her nukes more than likely was an existential error.

The Czechs and Poles, even after having a promised missile defense system unilaterally yanked by Obama, count on an American deterrent to Russian adventurism.

As Ukraine is being invaded, what is the American president doing? Shooting pool in Denver, kissing babies in Texas and attending fundraisers in New York.

Is America defending Ukraine? No. Are we looking as though we take seriously the threat of Russian expansion into Ukraine, the Czech Republic and Poland and the re-formation of the Soviet Union? No.

I don’t believe we should get militarily involved in Ukraine; Darwin was right and evolution applies also to nation-states unwilling to defend their place in the ecosystem.

But that’s beside the point: The point is that Ukraine voluntarily gave up their nukes; they acceded to non-proliferation. And are being destroyed.

The point is that an intelligent, aware administration would not have let come to pass the global deterioration America seems to have enabled, if not encouraged. .

The point is that America is not living up to her word. And in that absence, Russia invades Ukraine. The Poles and Czechs see no protection from America and no non-nuclear way of defending their nations or deterring attackers.

The point is that the American argument supporting nonproliferation is hollow.

The point is that America is demonstrating why proliferation is necessary.

It must be remembered that demographics matter to the ability of a nation to plan or to wage war. Low-population, low fertility countries, when planning for or being drawn in to war, require access to combat productivity: killing enough of your enemies that they stop before you lose too many of your own – and are defeated.

When nations plan for war they take into account the combat productivity of their adversary and their own demographics.

Nuclear weapons are enormously productive, and are the only weapons that make any kind of sense at all for low-fertility countries when faced with larger opponents.

Russia is large. Ukraine, Poland, Czech, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia… all are low-fertility nations.

China is huge. Japan is among the lowest fertility nations on the planet.

China pushes aggressively into the South China Sea. And Japan knows that, absent a nuclear arsenal, she cannot stop her.

And all of these nations see that Ukraine is being invaded because she lacks nukes.

Israel sees an American administration telling it to be “measured” after taking over a thousand incoming rockets and having her children kidnapped and murdered. And no American support or deterrence. And they KNOW Iran is building a Bomb that America won’t deter.

But Russia is not the only, perhaps not the biggest issue.

We may look at Iran first as an opponent. But Iran sees herself as a nation with defense needs of her own, foreign policy interests of her own. Iran lives in a dangerous neighborhood. Just because she is the primary local aggressor doesn’t change that. Iran’s regional opponent in a conflict stretching back a millennium is an Arab Sunni hegemony. The Sunni Saudis have lots of money, and North Korea has nukes. Iran is building a Shia corridor to the sea through Iraq and Syria to reduce the threat they see in being surrounded by Sunni.

A paranoid Iran, having watched 30 years of American military aid filling the air bases and ammo dumps of Saudi Arabia and Israel, may be terrified: what if Israel or the Saudis launch a first strike because THEY feel threatened?

Remember our fear of a Soviet first strike? Do you think no other country fears the same? Being afraid your opponent will beat you to the battlefield causes wars.

And Iran’s demographics stink. The average Iranian woman of childbearing age had seven siblings… yet is having ONE child. Their demographics are tanking faster than any nation on earth. Putting women in a bag and murdering them for flirting or attempting an education is having an effect.

Iran sees an America unwilling to keep the peace, unwilling to use the force she has to achieve the ends she declares, unwilling even to threaten to make good the entire concept of deterrence. They KNOW America will not act and so dismiss her.

This is extremely dangerous. Worse, it seems to be a danger which the extraordinarily unaware Democrat voter and mainstream media are incapable of grasping.

If Obama can not grasp the danger, he is incompetent and naively leading the world to disaster. If he can, his refusal to act to ameliorate it is purposefully leading to catastrophe.

No nation we have promised to support with our deterrence sees an America acting – or even talking – as though we will actually do so. Ukraine is being overrun. The Czechs and Poles are sweating bullets. Israel is being attacked. Japan likely is as nervous as at any time in the postwar period. Islamist Sunni are enlarging their grip in South Asia, threatening Shia Iran.

All of these nations have the wherewithal to build fission weapons. Or buy them.

All of these nations see that America’s actions under a Democrat administration, represented by the two most naive and incompetent Secretaries of State in our history and a president who cannot be counted on for their defense, is antithetical to their national survival.

No nation sees in America a responsible defense partner.

A responsible America is the entire foundation of nuclear nonproliferation.

The American president and Democrat administration represent the biggest threat of nuclear proliferation the world has ever seen.

 

About Alex Scipio

About Alex Scipio: Alex moved out of the People's Republic of California to the Free State of Arizona, finally tiring of the lack of the Bill of Rights, the overgrown idiocracy, and the catering to non-Americans & welfare recipients. He still wonders how America got from Truman, Eisenhower, and Daniel Patrick Moynihan to the Liberal and Conservative extremes so badly managing America today. And, yes, islam DOES need to be annihilated. And doing what he can to get folks away from the extremes of political life.
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