Sudetenland was gobbled up by a leader looking to expand on the rationale of protecting his fellow ethnics. Then Austria. Then Czechoslovakia. It didn’t end well. Putin is using the same rationale.
I am not advocating WW3, I am pointing out the similarity of events. (If you haven’t read “The Gathering Storm,” however, I suggest you get on it.) WW3 will not occur between Russia and the West; Russia is too smart for that (and modern demographics will never again support massed armies). One hopes that America is, as well. We – the West – likely will suffer the loss of prestige of a Russia taking what it wants, but it won’t challenge us directly. Putin will stay out of the Western Hemisphere and won’t need to overrun W Europe to make it complacent (they already did that to themselves), so the West will talk and watch and make empty threats; but nothing good, nor WW3, will actually occur… if Obama is smart enough to stay out of it – which, if he is like his philosophical predecessor, Woodrow Wilson – another Academic Progressive, who created history’s bloodiest century by intervening in a European war, is ever in-doubt.
America already stood idly by when Putin took Georgia (2008), and likely will stand idly by when he takes Ukraine… and he won’t stop there; why should he? It is not as though he has any serious opponents – all his opponents have are talking heads with empty threats (ask Assad) and feckless allies (ask Mubarak) who don’t stand by national leaders who do as we ask (ask Ghaddafi).
(If you’re really intrigued by the new Great Game, watch as Japan nukes-up in response to a more-aggressive China, as South Korea nukes-up in response to DPRK nukes, as Saudi Arabia nukes-up in response to Iran… and try to figure out what America will do in response to Russia’s re-militarization of Cuba… as the world responds to an America proving it CANNOT be counted on. If you ever really believed the world would be more peaceful under Democrats, you OUGHT TO BE LEARNING you were mistaken. 98% of American KIA in foreign wars were in wars entered into by Democrat presidents…)
Even if we dump Obama, the infantile voters of the American Left will continue their lack of historical understanding (seen Common Core?), so every four years, the threat of a new Obama is present; the rest of the world knows this. (THIS is why Red States MUST secede: Liberty CANNOT grow or thrive under the Left, and too much of America is ingrained with parasitical, ahistorical, anti-liberty Leftism. WE MUST LEAVE.)
W Europe needs resources Putin controls – the NG used to heat & run W Europe. And W Europe has put itself in a position of being unable to stop its addiction by refusing to drill & frack its own fossil fuel in response to the hoax of AGW promulgated by leftist voters.
How did this come about?
Since 1945 W Europe has infantilized itself; it is one big welfare state – America provides for its defense, grows and sells to it a large amount of its food, and creates the jobs it has by providing its largest export market, and Russia provides its NG – a large amount of the energy necessary to produce those jobs and products.
Europe has been a basket case since The Somme. It’s time for this to be realized. All Europe is now is a retirement playground for 1% who pretend it retains its old splendor; for the 99%, it is a battleground in the clash of civilizations about which Huntington was absolutely correct.
What will be the result of that realization? Either Europe will man-up and grow-up and begin to care for themselves, which includes having the children it has refused since 1945 to have – or someone else will take them over. Darwin works. If the political entities cannot defend their place in the political ecosphere, they will be subsumed. There is no “Third Way,” and to think there is only demonstrates infantile feeling over critical thought.
For generations W Europeans have been content to laze around and let others take care of them as they grow old. They are incapable at this point of self-sufficiency: They sit awaiting their welfare checks from America and Russia while pretending that those providing the checks are subordinate to them and their desires. (This waiting for the check, not having babies mentality is the same as the American Left, btw.)
Once Putin has taken Georgia & Ukraine with no serious consequences, why would he stop? And we aren’t going to introduce any consequences; Obama won’t even authorize Keystone, thereby increasing our ability to export energy, decreasing Putin’s hold over W Europe. The Sierra Club fantasy league no more understands the real world than does your average Kindergarten class. But Obama WILL (has) send over F16s and destroyers as triggers… for what? No one thinks he will respond to aggression other than with withdrawal. (As did Reagan in Lebanon – Western fecklessness cares not about party – if hit, we will run; Putin knows this, and it’s not new – we haven’t fought for our national interests with all national power since 1945.) Putin will ascertain the human and mineral resources required to strengthen his country and move in whatever direction is required to gain those resources. This is the job of ANY national leader. Resources can be gained through economic and regulatory policies, through education and treaties, which is the way of the West, or taken. It’s the way the world works.
(But, frankly, if he takes over Chechnya and the ‘stans, and enforces punitive violence on the islamists there (as China is doing in Xingjian), I’m all for that, as should be the entire civilized world. Islamist countries must be brought into the modern world (forcibly or voluntarily) or extinguished; sharia Islamism has no place in a civilized world. The West does not get this. China does, and my guess is that so does Putin. In fact, Putin’s next move, once he has proven the emasculation of the West to the most ignorant observer (Kerry? Hillary? Cummings? McCain?), may well be a strong move against Chechnya. And remember, Putin’s demographics are worse than those of Europe (or even China).)
(Want a serious thought experiment? Once he takes Ukraine to the consternation and hand-wringing of Western talking heads – but no serious consequences, the West will have proven itself unwilling and incapable (really the same thing), to alter – or dictate – Putin’s actions. We will have talked about all the ways we can bring pressure to bear: Kick him out of the G8… and done… nothing. Is there a way out now? I don’t know. Suppose, then – here is the thought experiment – that he nukes Chechnya; they are an enemy, his demographics stink, why would he sacrifice his own – increasingly irreplaceable – soldiers to stomp them out? What do we do? Send Kerry over? I am being completely serious here. Will W Europe choose freezing to death (in our warming globe, btw) over punishing Russians because of the action of their – elected – leader in demonstrably defending Russia from pre-modern barbarism? Will we dispatch a dozen F16s to Poland? I am COMPLETELY SERIOUS. People MUST GRASP CONSEQUENCES OF LACK OF WILL. And the West PROVABLY HAS NO WILLPOWER.)
The fantasyland in which Europe – and, increasingly the United States – has been living since WW2, the idea that everyone can – and wants to – get along, Western-style – is over. And the West, pretending since 1945 that we can infantilize ourselves with no repercussions internationally, has no idea what to do about it.
- Things will get much worse on the international stage before they get better.
- It may really take another major war to force a somnolent, infantilized West to awaken from their history-is-over slumber, and that war will involve regional nuke exchanges because the West has left itself no alternative – collapse and surrender or, as Eisenhower noted while keeping the peace in the early Cold War, and (through nuclear threats) gaining and end to Korea, by using tactical nuclear weapons “as I would bullets” to stop incursions about which we feel strongly enough.
- Nukes will be exchanged in the Middle East and South Asia as a direct result of Western Democrat/Socialist fecklessness and historical ignorance, and the feeling on the part of half of America and probably three-quarters of Europe that not only can we all get along, we all want to get along, and no one really needs to work hard to move forward – personally or as a nation.
- Those who understand history, which certainly does NOT include our current president, the leaders of the EU or American Democrat voters, will have to set aside internal factional warfare in order to re-create a strong America. Strength requires willpower. America lacks that. We have been “fighting” a 7th-Century opponent with no technology past the assault rifle and a few knee mortars, for over a decade. Sixty years ago we destroyed – concurrently – two of the best military forces any nation has ever fielded… in under 4 years.
- More nations will break-apart for reasons of ethnicity, nationalism or liberty. Though these breakups should not be contested – people are perfectly capable of realizing a government no longer respects their will (ask the American Founders) – these breakups may result in civil wars (Venezuela, anyone?).
America, like it or not, is a paper tiger superpower, and will remain so until we prove we have the will to defend our interests; hard power absent hard will is worse than useless; it sets expectations we are unwilling to meet. And that defense begins with either defending our nation from the enemy in the White House, or secession from the Blue States who are demanding – and getting – enormous amounts of money from OUR kids, and bankrupting America economically and militarily. And then defending a new, free America from socialism.
Europe and American Democrat voters feel that good intentions trump good policy that often requires “tough love,” yet increases success, economic output, living standards and liberty. What they fail to grasp is that the international stage DOES NOT CARE about good intentions, any more than they care about economic strength.
The Left leadership knows this – but their goal is NOT economic strength; it is totalitarianism. Totalitarianism does not require – indeed, does not value – economic strength. Had Brezhnev, Khruschev, et al, valued economic strength, they would have created the political and economic and regulatory environment to foster that strength; if Obama and the Democrats in America valued economic strength, they would not be destroying the political, economic and regulatory environment that creates it. Liberty and economic strength CAN NOT be gained through the policies of the Left. BUT THE LEFT DOES NOT WANT THEM. As Ukraine, and Western Europe, are about to discover.
What Putin MAY be doing is forcing the West to grow-up.